At the end of July the Fed kept the policy rate in the same 5.25%-5.50% range it has been for more than a year, but signaled that a rate cut could come as soon as September if inflation continued to cool.
“Will July PPI data (Tuesday) and CPI data (Wednesday) continue to provide confidence to the Fed that inflation is under control and allow the easing cycle to start in September? Most think the answer to that question is yes,” said analysts at ING, in a note.
Oil prices rose for a fifth consecutive session on Monday, extending gains from the previous week’s more than 3% rise, as U.S. recession fears eased while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East supported prices.
Bitcoin has become a focal point of the US presidential campaign. Following the shift in Polymarket odds and polling in Harris’s favor, the original cryptocurrency has been trading in a range, recently touching $61,000 before dropping back to around $58,000.
European stocks and U.S. futures held steady on Monday, while the yen slipped as a holiday in Japan removed one source of recent volatility, and investors looked ahead to U.S. and Chinese economic data.
A trio of Federal Reserve policymakers indicated on Thursday that they were more confident that inflation is cooling enough to cut rates, and this – along with a bigger-than-expected fall in U.S. jobless claims data – helped to underpin the recovery.
“The abnormally large reaction to jobless claims figures yesterday was a testament to markets’ extremely elevated sensitivity to all sorts of indications on the US macro outlook right now,” said analysts at ING, in a now.
Oil prices ticked up on Friday and were on course for a weekly gain of more than 3% as positive economic data and signals from Fed policymakers that they could cut interest rates as early as September eased demand concerns, while fears of a widening Middle East conflict continue to raise supply risks.
Bitcoin price jumped higher on Friday, tracking a surge in broader risk-driven markets as positive U.S. labor market helped soothe some concerns that a recession was imminent, with altcoin prices also rallying.
Europe’s main index rose on Friday, with a continued boost from healthcare stocks, logging gains for a fourth consecutive session and eking out a gain for a turbulent week that began with a rout for global stocks on fears of a U.S. recession.
